Youth-Led Public Health Research · Santa Clara County

In one of America's wealthiest counties, where you live determines how healthy you are.

A data-driven analysis of obesity disparities across 370 census tracts reveals a stark east-west divide — and a roadmap for closing it.

East San Jose carries 5× the obesity risk of Cupertino.
370
We analyzed 370 census tracts across Santa Clara County.
14–34%
Obesity rates range from 14% to 34% depending on where you live.
#1
Depression is the #1 predictor of obesity risk — stronger than race or income.

Source: CDC PLACES (2025); U.S. Census Bureau, ACS (2019–2023); Random Forest Model (Test R² = 0.96)

DepressionTop Predictor East San JoseCritical Risk Alum RockAvg Score 63.2 Preventive CareInverted Housing Insecurity#3 Predictor GilroyAvg Score 56.9 5× Risk GapEast vs. West R² = 0.96Model Accuracy DepressionTop Predictor East San JoseCritical Risk Alum RockAvg Score 63.2 Preventive CareInverted Housing Insecurity#3 Predictor GilroyAvg Score 56.9 5× Risk GapEast vs. West R² = 0.96Model Accuracy
Key Findings

Three findings that demand action

Using CDC PLACES 2025 data and machine learning across 370 census tracts, this research identifies the strongest predictors of obesity at the neighborhood level — and where the greatest need for intervention lies.

01

Behavioral health beats demographics as a predictor

Depression, smoking, and housing insecurity predict obesity better than race, income, or education — even when both sets of factors are given to the model together. Mental health is an obesity intervention, not a separate concern.

SHAP Analysis · Random Forest
02

The geography is sharply divided

An east/west fault line runs through the county, with roughly a 5× gap in composite risk scores between the highest and lowest burden areas — where structural disadvantage compounds the cycle of chronic stress and poor health outcomes.

Composite Risk Score · 370 Tracts
03

Preventive care is inverted

Tracts with the highest obesity have the lowest checkup and cholesterol screening rates. The communities that need preventive care most are getting it least — a critical equity finding with direct policy implications.

Care Gap · Equity Finding
Priority Cities

Five cities with critical obesity risk tracts

The composite risk score — combining RF prediction, depression, smoking, housing insecurity, and care gaps — identifies where intervention resources are most urgently needed.

Alum Rock *63.2 avgCritical
Gilroy56.9 avgCritical
Morgan Hill45.0 avgHigh
San Jose *42.0 avg118 Tracts High/Critical
Stanford40.1 avgHigh

Source: CDC PLACES (2025); U.S. Census Bureau, ACS (2019–2023)

* Predominantly Hispanic and Vietnamese, lower-income communities where structural disadvantage and limited access to mental health and preventive care compound existing health inequalities.

Obesity Risk Score by Census Tract Santa Clara County · CDC PLACES 2025 Composite Score: RF + Depression + Smoking + Housing + Care Gaps
Tool Preview

Place-based interventions, tailored for your community

Sample project · Alum Rock · Low Income Households · Minority Communities

Alum Rock Critical

3 census tracts

63.2 / 100
Depression prevalence 19.3%
Housing insecurity 20.2%
Current smoking 12.4%
Physical inactivity 33.4%
Checkup rate (67.4%) below SCC median — preventive care inversion in a high-burden area.

COMBINED FOCUS GUIDANCE

Prioritize culturally-competent Medi-Cal enrollment through community health workers and bilingual access to county social services — language access must accompany all financial assistance programs.

Mental health

Launch peer navigation at trusted community sites. Depression at 19.3% is the leading driver of health risk here — addressing stigma and access barriers is the entry point.

Preventive care

Run mobile health screening at farmers markets and faith organizations. Checkup rate 67.4% means a large share has no routine health contact.

SAMPLE PROJECT
Housing stability

Advocate for emergency rental assistance and rapid-rehousing navigation. At 20.2% housing insecurity residents cannot sustain health-promoting behaviors.

SAMPLE PROJECT
Smoking cessation

Host peer-led cessation programs at trusted community venues. With 12.4% smoking, community distribution of NRT patches reaches those who won't self-refer.

SAMPLE PROJECT
Get Involved

This research is most powerful when it drives action

Whether you lead a community organization, shape public policy, or cover public health — there is a role for you in this work.

🤝

Community Organizations & Nonprofits

Partner with us to develop custom solutions

Every community faces its own combination of risk factors. We work with local organizations to identify the 4–5 highest-impact risk markers in your specific neighborhoods, then collaborate to design targeted, place-based actions and solutions — because no single approach fits every community.

Partner with us →
🏛️

Government & Policymakers

Place-based interventions backed by tract-level evidence

The research supports targeted investment in mental health access, housing stability, and preventive care in the highest-burden tracts. Policy briefs and custom solutions are available for city and county stakeholders.

Partner with us →
📰

Media & Press

A compelling story about equity in America's most affluent county

A high school researcher using machine learning to expose a 5× health gap between East and West San Jose — and connecting the dots to depression, housing, and preventive care access. A press kit is available on request.

Request the press kit →
HS
Henri Smit
Researcher · Crystal Springs Uplands School · Class of 2027
About the Researcher

Passionate about using data and AI to advance health equity in underserved communities

About the Researcher

Henri Smit is a community service leader and AI & data science practitioner with a deep passion for healthcare, public health, and the power of data to drive meaningful change in underserved communities.

This research grew out of Henri's role on the Youth Action Committee at Sacred Heart Community Service and his belief that data literacy is one of the most powerful tools available to the next generation of community advocates.

Emory Medical School HITI Lab — 3rd Place, Emory Health AI Datathon
Independent Immunology Researcher — manuscript under scientific committee review, Journal of Emerging Investigators
Youth Action Committee (Public Health) — Sacred Heart Community Service
Executive Board Member, VP of Publicity & Co-AVP of Philanthropy — MVLA Service League of Boys
Contact Henri →
Get In Touch

Ready to collaborate or learn more?

Whether you are a community organization, a policymaker, a journalist, or simply someone who cares about health equity in Santa Clara County — we would love to hear from you.